#474 The excel file LLBean.xls (download) contains

The excel file LLBean.xls (download) contains - Operations Management

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The excel file LLBean.xls (download) contains demand and forecast data for 84 items. Suppose that these are the data that L.L. Bean will use to plan their next season. Consider an item that retails for $44 and costs LL Bean $26. The liquidation price for this item is estimated to be $18. The sales forecast for this item is 12,500 units.

Q. What order quantity should L.L. Bean choose for this item?

	Item Number	Forecast	Actual Demand
	1	1153	768
	2	205	33
	3	1135	928
	4	285	359
	5	1930	2417
	6	1800	1962
	7	202	1
	8	705	725
	9	754	1043
	10	466	176
	11	805	533
	12	1212	1340
	13	740	1067
	14	1103	508
	15	1504	1890
	16	1567	1387
	17	1028	807
	18	198	235
	19	1608	1256
	20	1523	765
	21	351	541
	22	840	419
	23	1012	1223
	24	114	77
	25	1864	1807
	26	3986	3433
	27	2627	2935
	28	2703	2952
	29	4750	4722
	30	3177	3582
	31	3740	3574
	32	2062	2668
	33	2542	2619
	34	4897	6131
	35	2588	3109
	36	3125	2976
	37	3323	3325
	38	2575	2349
	39	4858	4589
	40	2483	2153
	41	2734	2699
	42	2970	2764
	43	4543	4962
	44	3395	3771
	45	2686	2322
	46	2311	3089
	47	4544	5416
	48	2823	2700
	49	2095	2069
	50	2529	3206
	51	5169	5701
	52	6678	7456
	53	7986	8954
	54	7315	6135
	55	9083	9183
	56	9043	10514
	57	8680	8661
	58	5099	6533
	59	5946	7080
	60	6522	6088
	61	9942	12060
	62	8203	7351
	63	7502	8736
	64	8939	11138
	65	7753	8288
	66	7522	7275
	67	9099	7522
	68	9218	10215
	69	6067	5452
	70	7495	8772
	71	7937	6956
	72	9753	9403
	73	6902	6849
	74	7089	6303
	75	8948	7872
	76	11850	15300
	77	10629	9323
	78	10933	11407
	79	15671	18126
	80	11207	10337
	81	14436	10700
	82	16147	17391
	83	16890	16892
	84	18652	17873

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Mean A/F	0.992
Stdev of A/F	0.258
Forecast	12,500
Expected demand, μ	12397.96
Stdev of demand, σ	3194.63
Selling price	44
Cost of purchase	26
Liquidation value	18
Cu	18
Co	8
Optimal in-stock prob, F(z)	0.692
z	0.502